Bad News for leavers – the EU Has BiggerPriorities than Brexit

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016ov/14/leavers-eu-brexit-france-germany-theresa-may

Brexit meansBrexit. Theresa May has made it clear that it is she who will ultimately decidewhat that means. But the prime minister is deluding herself. And I’m notconvinced that, despite the recent high court ruling, the House of Commons isabout to shape our negotiating strategy. Our fate lies not only in thegovement’s hands, but also in those of our European partners.

This is alldown to the rules of the game. Forget article 50. The real issue is that thedeal that the UK strikes with its partners about our future economic relationswith the EU will require unanimous ratification, not by leaders meeting in theEuropean council but, rather, by parliaments across the EU (of which, if youinclude those regions with voting rights, there are 38).

Many, if notmost, of the other member states enjoy pretty healthy levels of trade with theUK. This provides an economic incentive for all parties to come to an amicablesettlement that preserves these economic relations. Jobs are at stake on thecontinent too.

Unfortunately,however, economic rationality does not always win the day when it comes topolitical decisions. Just as, for some in this country, the principle ofrestoring British sovereignty trumped issues of profit and loss, so too, forsome of our partners, issues other than economic advantage might determinetheir reactions to Brexit.

In an attemptto understand continental attitudes to Brexit for a BBC Radio 4 programme to beaired this evening, I took a short trip and talked to politicians in fourmember states – the Netherlands, France, Germany and the Czech Republic – whereelections are due next year. Not a representative sample, certainly, but enoughto give an impression of the incentives that might shape the Brexitnegotiations to come.

It should comeas no surprise that one person celebrating the referendum outcome was an MEPfrom France’s Front National. Having described how he had popped open thechampagne on 24 June, however, he quickly added that his party’s glee wouldwork against May.

The challengesMay’s plan will face include France’s centre-left and centre-right politicianshaving no interest in allowing Britain an exit deal that strengthens Marine LePen. And their desire to send a political message is shared by centristpoliticians in the Netherlands, nervously tracking the electoral prospects oftheir own populist firebrand, Geert Wilders. The Dutch traditionally may havebeen a close and reliable ally of ours in the EU, but politics is politics, andan attractive Brexit deal is not in the political interest of the goveingparty.

For politiciansin the Czech Republic, it is the threat to their countrymen rather than to thepolitical center that preoccupies the political class. Reports of increasedlevels of violence and abuse towards easte Europeans were given prominence inthe domestic press, and political leaders have been quick to promise to do allin their power to address the issue.

And it isagainst this background that they will approach negotiations with a Britishgovement keen to secure as much trade with the EU as possible, whilecontrolling migration into the UK. And here, the Czechs draw a line. Freedom ofmovement is one of the key attractions of EU membership for the people ofcentral and Easte Europe. Diluting the principle to help London is, to saythe least, not a high priority in Prague at the moment.

Which brings usto Germany. The high volume of trade that Germans enjoy with Britain hasconvinced many in this country that Angela Merkel would not be willing toimpose economic pain on her country by insisting on a Brexit deal that imposedbarriers to commerce. Surely, so the argument goes, the big Germanmanufacturers will lobby hard to preserve access to a key market?

But to thinkthis is to mistake the mood in Berlin. A senior official from a prominentemployers’ association told me ruefully that his members were already sufferingill effects from Brexit. However, frantic efforts to persuade the Germangovement to limit this pain were proving fruitless.

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An MP from thegoveing CDU explained why. As far as Germany’s govement is conceed, thechallenge of Brexit is akin to that of dealing with Russia after its invasionof Crimea. Then too business leaders waed of economic pain if sanctions wereimposed on Moscow. But the govement held the political imperative to be moreimportant than the economic calculation. This, he added with someone finality,would prove to be the case in negotiations with London as well.

And it is notjust in Berlin that politics will trump economics. The Dutch equivalent of theOffice for Budget Responsibility has predicted a loss in the region of €10bnover the next 15 years in the event of a “hard Brexit”. The Dutch govement issimply incorporating the figure into its economic plaing. My Front Nationalfriend explained, with some bitteess, that the French elite was willing torisk French jobs to protect the EU and undermine the prospects of his party innext year’s election.

For all thedifferences in their domestic political situations, our partners are, for themoment at least, united when it comes to the Brexit negotiations. And this isseen most clearly in their hostility to the idea that the UK should be allowedto benefit from the single market while restricting freedom of movement.

This is notboe out of any desire to punish us. Everyone I spoke to was genuinely sadthat we have voted to leave. But ultimately they all acknowledge that their owninterests, whether they be domestic politics, or in ensuring the stability ofthe EU, take precedence over their friendship with us.

Of course,there is a long way to go until the negotiations start, let alone finish. Andpolitics, especially contemporary politics, has a habit of surprising us.Nothing about Brexit is preordained. But, from where we stand now, we don’tjust need a post-Brexit plan, we need to overcome the attitudes of ourpartners, or it is likely to be an economically painful ride.