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Japan shrinking as birthrate falls to lowest level in history

In 2018 there were 921,000 birthsand 1.37m deaths, with govement efforts failing to encourage families to havemore children

Hanai/Reuters

Japan suffered its biggestpopulation decline on record this year, according to new figures that underlinethe country’s losing battle to raise its birth rate.

The number of births fell to itslowest since records began more than a century ago, the health and welfareministry said, soon after parliament approved an immigration bill that willpave the way for the arrival of hundreds of thousands of blue-collar workers toaddress the worst labour shortage in decades.

The ministry estimated 921,000babies will have been bo by the end of 2018 – 25,000 fewer than last year andthe lowest number since comparable records began in 1899. It is also the thirdyear in a row the number of births has been below one million.

Combined with the estimated numberof deaths this year – a postwar high of 1.37 million – the natural decline ofJapan’s population by 448,000 is the biggest ever.

The data suggests the govementwill struggle to reach its goal of raising the birth rate – the average numberof children a woman has during her lifetime – to 1.8 by April 2026. The currentbirth rate stands at 1.43, well below the 2.07 required to keep the populationstable.

The Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, hasdescribed Japan’s demographics as a national crisis and promised to increasechildcare places and introduce other measures to encourage couples to have morechildren.

But the number of children onwaiting lists for state-funded daycare increased for the third year in a rowlast year, raising doubts over his plans to provide a place for every child byApril 2020.

Japanese people have an impressivelife expectancy – 87.2 years for women and 81.01 years for men – which expertsattribute to regular medical examinations, universal healthcare coverage and,among older generations, a preference for Japan’s traditional low-fat diet.

But the growing population of olderpeople is expected to place unprecedented strain on health and welfare servicesin the decades to come. Some of those costs will be met by a controversial risein the consumption (sales) tax, from 8% to 10%, next October.

Earlier this year the govementsaid 26.1 million – or just over 20% of the total population of 126.7 million –were aged 70 and over.

The number of centenarians,meanwhile, had risen to 69,785 as of September this year, with women making up88% of the total.

Japan has the highest proportion ofolder people – or those aged 65 and over – in the world, followed by Italy,Portugal and Germany.

The National Institute of Populationand Social Security Research in Tokyo estimated that more than 35% of Japanesewill be aged 65 or over by 2040.